Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Dividend: Is There a Role for Natural Resources?

About the project Natural Resource-led Development in New Producing Countries Our project seeks to understand how natural resource extraction can drive inclusive economic growth in new producing countries. We are engaged in a multiyear multidisciplinary study with four objectives: Understand the human geography of new producing countries.Assess the magnitude of new discoveries and estimate direct fiscal impact. Understand how industry can be localized to create economic growth.Estimate spillovers and welfare impacts to society. We recognize that policymaking in new producing countries is a complex process, and our project also seeks to understand the interactions of actors’ interests that drive energy sector policies. Our initial focus is on four countries – Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda – that expect to develop significant oil and gas reserves in the next 5-7 years. Through natural resource development, these countries hope to achieve middle-income economic status by 2030-2040. This project is conducted through close collaboration with leading think tanks and NGOs in Africa.Key PointsSub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the most resource-rich countries in the world, many of whom are endowed with large oil, gas and mineral deposits. This discussion paper examines the role of natural resources in the economic development and demography of countries in SSA, showcasing various paths states have taken that led them to either bless or curse the discovery and development of these resources. By 2050, the number of oil and gas exporting countries in this region is expected to almost double to 22 from 12. An additional 16 will become mineral exporting countries, which will mean that more than 80 percent of SSA states will be dependent on natural resources. How the revenues earned are managed and used will determine their economic and social future. The region’s population in 2015 was estimated to be 949 million and is expected to grow to 2.6 billion by 2050, which will constitute more than 25 percent of global population. The change in age structures will mean that by 2030, sub-Saharan Africa will represent nearly two-thirds of the growth in the world’s workforce. There is an opportunity to reap the benefits of a demographic dividend in this transition but careful economic planning and policies are needed. Natural resource-driven development in Africa to date has not led to economic growth that significantly improved the welfare of people in these countries. The sector will not create enough jobs to cater for the number of people ente

关于项目《新生产国自然资源引领的发展》本项目旨在探究自然资源开采如何推动新生产国包容性经济增长。我们正在进行一项为期多年的跨学科研究，旨在实现以下四个目标：理解新生产国的人文地理；评估新发现规模并估算直接财政影响；探究行业如何实现本地化以创造经济增长；估算对社会的外溢效应和福利影响。我们认识到新生产国政策制定是一个复杂的过程，本项目亦旨在理解推动能源政策制定的各方利益互动。我们的初步关注点在于四个国家——肯尼亚、莫桑比克、坦桑尼亚和乌干达——这些国家预计在接下来5至7年内将开发出显著的石油和天然气储备。通过自然资源开发，这些国家期望在2030至2040年间实现中等收入经济体的地位。本项目通过与非洲领先的智库和非政府组织紧密合作而开展。要点：撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）拥有世界上最丰富的资源国家，其中许多国家拥有大量的石油、天然气和矿产资源。本讨论论文探讨了自然资源在撒哈拉以南非洲国家经济发展和人口统计学中的作用，展示了各国为发现和发展这些资源所采取的多种途径，这些途径或使这些资源成为祝福，或成为诅咒。到2050年，该地区的石油和天然气出口国数量预计将从12个增加到22个，另外16个国家将成为矿产出口国，这意味着超过80%的SSA国家将依赖自然资源。如何管理和使用这些收入将决定其经济和社会的未来。2015年，该地区的人口估计为9.49亿，预计到2050年将增长到26亿，这将构成全球人口的超过25%。年龄结构的变化意味着到2030年，撒哈拉以南非洲将占世界劳动力增长近三分之二。在这一转型过程中，有潜力利用人口红利，但需要谨慎的经济规划和政策。迄今为止，非洲的自然资源驱动型发展并未导致显著改善该国人民福利的经济增长。该行业将无法创造足够的就业机会来满足涌入的人数。