Undergraduate GPA Does Not Predict Success in PhD Programs

Master
of Science (MS) research training programs funded by organizations such as the
NIH, the NSF as well as private corporations represent the potential for
significant interventions for student success, especially for marginalized or
underrepresented and first-generation students, to bridge the gap between
undergraduate studies and doctoral programs. These students often face serious challenges
during their undergraduate years, such as navigating unfamiliar academic
systems, balancing demanding coursework with work responsibilities, and
fulfilling family obligations. These and other systemic pressures can impede
their academic progress and opportunities for research experience. We therefore
asked how their undergraduate GPA impacted success in the PhD in terms of (i)
acceptance, (ii) completion, and (iii) time to degree after participating in a
funded MS research training program. We examined data collected at San
Francisco State University and California State University, Los Angeles over a
30-year period because they (i) had similar student demographics, (ii) were
institutions with strong MS degrees, and (iii) had an infrastructure (established
offices) to coordinate various training programs. We found that high GPA did
not predict greater success in entering or completing the PhD, or in time to
degree. This study, therefore, demonstrates that undergraduates from diverse
groups with lower undergraduate GPA levels can benefit from a structured MS
research training program in reaching their goal of becoming a PhD scientist. Moreover,
it indicates that more holistic approaches in admissions are required,
including limiting the use of a GPA below 3.0 as an early filter to eliminate
applicants. These MS programs appear to play a crucial role as a bridge to PhD
studies and are instrumental in enhancing diversity within STEM fields. We
suggest that a strategy for success is to provide infrastructure in the form of
a coordinated office housing the training grants as a means of structuring
mentorship and professional development for under-represented and first generation
students.