Assessing Temporal Causal Effects of Climate on Dengue Incidence in Peninsular Malaysia

This study explores how climate factors specifically temperature, humidity, and rainfall, affect dengue cases in Peninsular Malaysia. Using data from 2013 to 2020, we applied time-series methods to understand both delayed (lagged) and immediate effects of climate on dengue outbreaks. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model showed that past dengue cases and temperature four months earlier influenced current case numbers. Granger causality analysis confirmed that temperature can predict future dengue trends, while humidity and rainfall did not show strong temporal effects. However, all three climate factors showed strong immediate impacts on dengue incidence. The findings highlight the importance of temperature in both predicting and responding to dengue outbreaks, supporting its inclusion in early warning systems.