Table 3_Global, regional and national burden of myocarditis in adolescents and young adults, 1990–2021: systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.xls

ObjectiveThis study aims to systematically characterize the global, regional, and national trends of myocarditis among individuals aged 15–39 years between 1990 and 2021, identify associated influencing factors, and forecast future burden through 2050. Findings from this research are expected to support the development of evidence-based health policies and enhance resource allocation for this vulnerable population.
MethodsData on incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to myocarditis among individuals aged 15–39 years were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Analyses were stratified by region, country, age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) to explore heterogeneity across populations. Temporal trends were evaluated by estimating the annual percentage change (APC) using the Segment regression model, with the estimated average annual percentage change (EAPC) calculated through log-linear models for robustness.
ResultsThere were 349,033.33 incident cases of myocarditis in adolescents and young adults worldwide in 2021[95% uncertainty interval (UI), 235,755.91–494,002.44]. Mortality was recorded at 3,300.73 deaths (95% UI, 2,643.01–4,256.11), while DALYs totaled 208,644.28 (95% UI, 169,653.92–267,518.34). The high SDI region recorded the highest incidence rate among the five SDI categories, reaching 13.66 per 100,000 population (95% UI, 9.84–18.62). The greatest number of myocarditis-related deaths occurred regionally in East Asia (1,097.59; 95% UI, 726.99–1,426.58). India reported the most incident cases at the national level (71,257.12; 95% UI, 46,817.01–100,807.05). In 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of myocarditis were all higher in men than in women. The highest incidence was observed in the 30–34 years age group, whereas the 35–39 years age group had the highest mortality and DALYs. Both high and low temperatures were found to be significant risk factors for myocarditis in this group, based on the 2021 GBD data. Frontier analyses indicate that there is potential for alleviating the burden of myocarditis in adolescents and young adults, considering national and regional levels of development. Through 2050, incidence and DALYs rates are expected to continue to drop.
ConclusionWhile global incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates of myocarditis among adolescents and young adults have shown a declining trend, the numbers of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs continue to rise. Enhancing the understanding of its epidemiological characteristics can facilitate more effective prevention and control strategies.