Circular Economy Macro Analysis for EU 27

Category Variable Description / What it represents
Dependent Variable Circular Material Use Rate (CMUR) Level of material circularity; share of material demand met by recycled materials, representing overall circular economy performance
Economic Growth GDP per capita (lnGDPpc) Economic growth and income level, capturing the stage of economic development
GDP per capita squared (lnGDPpc²) Nonlinear income effect used to test the Kuznets-type (U-shaped or inverted U-shaped) relationship
Productivity Variables Energy productivity Energy efficiency of the economy; economic output per unit of energy use, capturing potential rebound (Jevons) effects
Resource productivity Material efficiency; economic output per unit of material consumption, reflecting genuine circular efficiency gains
Innovation and Investment Patents related to recycling and secondary raw materials Technological innovation in circular economy activities
Private investment and gross value added in circular economy sectors Scale of economic activity and investment intensity in circular economy–related sectors
Environmental and Trade Control Variables Domestic greenhouse gas emissions (ln) Environmental pressure associated with production and consumption activities
Material import dependency Degree of reliance on imported raw materials, capturing trade and supply vulnerability
Raw material consumption (ln) Material footprint of the economy; total material demand induced by final consumption
Consumption footprint Environmental impacts of consumption, capturing demand-side pressure on resources