A hierarchical model for eDNA fate and transport dynamics accommodating low concentration samples

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is an increasingly important tool for answering ecological questions and informing aquatic species management; however, several factors currently limit the reliability of ecological inference from eDNA sampling. Two particular challenges are 1) determining species source location(s) and 2) accurately and precisely measuring low concentration eDNA samples in the presence of multiple sources of ecological and measurement variability. The recently introduced eDNA Integrating Transport and Hydrology (eDITH) model provides a framework for relating eDNA measurements to source locations in riverine networks, but little empirical work has been done to test and refine model assumptions or accommodate low concentration samples, that can be systematically undermeasured. To better understand eDNA fate and transport dynamics and our ability to reliably quantify low concentration samples, we developed a hierarchical model and used it to evaluate a fate and transport ..., , , # A Hierarchical Model for eDNA Fate and Transport Dynamics Accommodating Low Concentration Samples

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8gtht76wc](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8gtht76wc)

## Description of the data and file structure

The field data are located in greenhollow_techrep 12_4_2.csv on Dryad.

Metadata for greenhollow_techrep 12_4_2.csv is in green hollow metadata.csv on Dryad.

**Empirical Analysis**

1\. The data are in greenhollow_techrep 12_4_23.

2\. The nimble release model files are \"Release NimModel X.R\", where X is one of the four models: PL, Exponential, Inhibitor PL, and Inhibitor Exponential.

3\. Custom MCMC functions (inhibitor models only) are in \"State Samplers.R\".

4\. Test scripts to run 1 chain for each model are in \"Run X.R\".

5\. Scripts to run multiple chains in parallel for each model are in \"Run X Parallel.R\".

6\. The multi-chain posteriors from 5 above are stored in \"S1.R\", \"S1b.R\", \"S2.R\", and \"S2b.R\", which

correspond to Inhibitor PL, Inhibitor Expo...