Table_1_Effects of Probabilistic Risk Situation Awareness Tool (RSAT) on Aeronautical Weather-Hazard Decision Making.docx

We argue that providing cumulative risk as an estimate of the uncertainty in dynamically changing risky environments can help decision-makers meet mission-critical goals. Specifically, we constructed a simplified aviation-like weather decision-making task incorporating Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) images of convective weather. NEXRAD radar images provide information about geographically referenced precipitation. NEXRAD radar images are used by both pilots and laypeople to support decision-making about the level of risk posed by future weather-hazard movements. Using NEXRAD, people and professionals have to infer the uncertainty in the meteorological information to understand current hazards and extrapolate future conditions. Recent advancements in meteorology modeling afford the possibility of providing uncertainty information concerning hazardous weather for the current flight. Although there are systematic biases that plague people’s use of uncertainty information, there is evidence that presenting forecast uncertainty can improve weather-related decision-making. The current study augments NEXRAD by providing flight-path risk, referred to as the Risk Situational Awareness Tool (RSAT). RSAT provides the probability that a route will come within 20 NMI radius (FAA recommended safety distance) of hazardous weather within the next 45 min of flight. The study evaluates four NEXRAD displays integrated with RSAT, providing varying levels of support. The “no” support condition has no RSAT (the NEXRAD only condition). The “baseline” support condition employs an RSAT whose accuracy is consistent with current capability in meteorological modeling. The “moderate” support condition applies an RSAT whose accuracy is likely at the top of what is achievable in meteorology in the near future. The “high” support condition provides a level of support that is likely unachievable in an aviation weather decision-making context without considerable technological innovation. The results indicate that the operators relied on the RSAT and improved their performance as a consequence. We discuss the implications of the findings for the safe introduction of probabilistic tools in future general aviation cockpits and other dynamic decision-making contexts. Moreover, we discuss how the results contribute to research in the fields of dynamic risk and uncertainty, risk situation awareness, cumulative risk, and risk communication.

我们认为，在动态变化的风险环境中，提供累积风险作为不确定性的估计有助于决策者实现至关重要的目标。具体而言，我们构建了一个简化的类似航空的天气决策任务，其中包含了对流天气的下一代雷达（NEXRAD）图像。NEXRAD雷达图像提供了关于地理参考降水的信息。NEXRAD雷达图像被飞行员和普通民众用于支持对未来天气灾害移动所造成风险水平的决策。使用NEXRAD，人们和专业人士必须推断气象信息的不确定性，以理解当前的灾害并预测未来的条件。气象建模领域的最新进展使得提供有关当前飞行中危险天气的不确定性信息成为可能。尽管存在困扰人们使用不确定性信息的系统性偏差，但有证据表明，呈现预测不确定性可以改善与天气相关的决策。当前研究通过提供被称为风险情境意识工具（RSAT）的飞行路径风险来增强NEXRAD。RSAT提供了在飞行后的45分钟内，一条航线将进入距离危险天气20海里半径（FAA推荐的安全距离）内的概率。该研究评估了四种集成了RSAT的NEXRAD显示，提供了不同级别的支持。没有支持的条件下没有RSAT（仅NEXRAD条件）。基准支持条件下使用的RSAT的准确性与当前气象建模能力一致。中等支持条件下应用的RSAT的准确性可能在近期气象学所能达到的顶峰。高支持条件提供了一种在航空天气决策环境中没有重大技术创新难以实现的支持水平。结果表明，操作员依赖RSAT并因此提高了他们的表现。我们讨论了研究结果对于在未来的通用航空驾驶舱和其他动态决策环境中安全引入概率工具的启示。此外，我们还讨论了结果如何为动态风险和不确定性、风险情境意识、累积风险和风险传播等领域的科学研究做出贡献。