Model Based Screening Embedded Bayesian Variable Selection for Ultra-high Dimensional Settings

We develop a Bayesian variable selection method, called SVEN, based on a hierarchical Gaussian linear model with priors placed on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. Sparsity is achieved by using degenerate <i>spike</i> priors on inactive variables, whereas Gaussian <i>slab</i> priors are placed on the coefficients for the important predictors making the posterior probability of a model available in explicit form (up to a normalizing constant). Embedding a unique model based screening and using fast Cholesky updates, SVEN produces a highly scalable computational framework to explore gigantic model spaces, rapidly identify the regions of high posterior probabilities and make fast inference and prediction. A temperature schedule is used to further mitigate multimodal posterior distributions. The temperature value is guided by our model selection consistency results which hold even when the norm of mean effects solely due to the unimportant variables diverges. An appealing byproduct of SVEN is the construction of novel model weight adjusted prediction intervals. The performance of SVEN is demonstrated through a number of simulation experiments and a real data example from a genome wide association study with over half a million markers. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.