Climate change is predicted to reduce sympatry among North American wood-warblers

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change will dramatically alter species distributions. The rate and magnitude of range shifts, however, will differ among taxa, resulting in altered patterns of co-occurrence and interspecific interactions. We examined potential climate-mediated breeding range shifts among North American wood-warblers (Parulidae), a speciose avian family likely to be especially impacted by such changes due to high levels of interspecific competition and hybridization. We used publicly available species distribution model (SDM) range outputs to compare current ranges and patterns of sympatry among warbler species to future ranges and sympatry under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C of average global warming. Range overlap among species and number of sympatric species are expected to decrease significantly in future warming scenarios, and unequal range shifts will alter the composition of warbler communities. On average, climate change will result in net decreases in the local species ...