Median exaggeration factor for the simulated scenarios in Table 1.

Scenario descriptions and parameter combinations are adapted directly from Ioannidis [1]. The remaining columns contain the median effect size exaggeration in simulations of 5,000 published findings using different effect size distributions in our model. The parameters for the distributions are set so that the prevalence of effects above the minimum effect of interest approximate the specified odds (see S1 Table for model parameters and achieved prevalences for each scenario). Missing values in some scenarios occur when the desired prevalence cannot be achieved without changing the minimum effect of interest, thus complicating direct comparisons with other scenarios.* For Two Normals, one cannot obtain the desired prevalence (66,7%) without changing the minimum of interest threshold or the SD of the wider normal. A normal N(0, 1) has only around 62% of its mass beyond the minimum of interest. ** For Two Peaks, onecannot obtain the desired prevalence (0,1%) without changing the minimum of interest threshold. A normal distribution N(0, 0.2) -has over 1% of its mass beyond the minimum of interest on both sides. (XLSX)