Phenotypic biomarkers of climatic impacts on declining insect populations: a key role for decadal drought, thermal buffering and amplification effects and host plant dynamics

1. Widespread population declines have been reported for diverse Mediterranean butterflies over the last three decades, and have been significantly associated to increased global change impacts. The specific landscape and climatic drivers of these declines remain uncertain for most declining species.
2. Here we analyse whether plastic phenotypic traits of a model butterfly species (Pieris napi) perform as reliable biomarkers of vulnerability to extreme temperature impacts in natural populations, showing contrasting trends in thermally exposed and thermally buffered populations.
3. We also examine whether improved descriptions of thermal exposure of insect populations can be achieved by combining multiple information sources (i.e. integrating measurements of habitat thermal buffering, habitat thermal amplification, host plant transpiration, and experimental assessments of thermal death time (TDT), thermal avoidance behaviour (TAB) and thermally induced trait plasticity). These integrat...