From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States

Managing climate-change refugia is a commonly recommended strategy for conserving biodiversity. However, few efforts have moved beyond the modeling phase of refugia science to management. Here, we present two case studies that move beyond modeling to testing models and management. In the first case study, we model refugia for two plant species (three-toothed cinquefoil [Sibbaldia tridentata] and black crowberry [Empetrum nigrum]) in Acadia National Park, Maine, United States, and use greenhouse experiments, common-garden experiments, and participatory science to evaluate the output of those models. Our results suggest that three-toothed cinquefoil growth and survival is reduced under increased temperatures as models predict. However, other variables (e.g., soil moisture and salinity) might also be important to modeling and managing refugia for both species. National Park Service staff and partners have been directing restoration for both species to refugia, but are also exploring other ..., , # From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States

Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.4qrfj6qqj](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4qrfj6qqj)

## Description of the data and file structure

The data contains code and csv files associated with:

1. A common garden experiment used to evaluate the sensitivity of three-toothed cinquefoil to high temperature.
2. A greenhouse experiment used to evaluate the sensitivity of three-toothed cinquefoil to high temperature under different water regimes.
3. An observational study evaluating whether three-toothed cinquefoil and black crowberry perform different in and out of predicted climate change refugia.

### Files and variables

#### File: Nadeau_et_al-2025-CodeAndData.zip

CommonGarden/code

analyze_garden_data.R: R code used to format the data, perform statistical analyses, and produce the figures presented in the paper for the three-toothed cinquefoil common garden ...,