LMA Risk maps at Shire scale

A data collection of geospatial and temporal maps, and a spreadsheet, of LMA risks at Shire level for a specified set of initial flowering dates. The shire scale LMA risk analysis applied the LMA incidence model within a modified version of Oz-Wheat (Potgieter et al. 2006) to over 1800 contributing climate stations across the wheat-belt. For this purpose, Oz-Wheat utilises daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the SILO (Scientific Information for Landowners) patch point database. A phenological modelling approach based on APSIM (Keating et al. 2003) is applied to track the flowering to physiological maturity period. Multiple flowering dates were prescribed to represent a range of earlier and later flowering times across the wheat-belt, including 1 Aug, 15 Aug, 1 Sep, 15 Sep, 1 Oct, 15 Oct, and 1 Nov. LMA incidence modelling was applied at station level from 1991 – 2020 to quantify the year-to-year variability of LMA incidence (magnitude). The magnitude was then scaled to a binary value of 0 (no LMA) and 1 (LMA occurred). LMA risk at each station was quantified as the frequency (%) of years with LMA incidence over the 30 years of simulation results. A station weighted average for LMA risk was obtained at each shire. LMA risks mapped at Shire level were defined across a range of classes including 0 (or nil), < 10%, 10-20%, 20-30%, 30-40%, 40-50% and > 50% (or at least 1 in 2 years).