Mechanisms of population shrinkage on carbon emission efficiency in northeast China

As a typical population shrinking area in China, northeast region is confronted with severe issues regarding carbon emission efficiency. A thorough exploration of the effects of population shrinkage on carbon emission efficiency not only provides theoretical references for the green transformation of northeast China but also offers scientific support for the advancement of China’s ‘dual carbon’ goals and sustainable development. This article analyses the influencing mechanism of population shrinkage on carbon emission efficiency through the panel Tobit model and the mediator effect model. The results show that: 1) From 2012 to 2021, the carbon emission efficiency in population shrinking areas is relatively low, with a fluctuating downward trend, and there are obvious differences in the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emission efficiency in different types of areas. 2) There is a significant negative correlation between population shrinkage and carbon emission efficiency in different population shrinking areas. Among them, the impact of population shrinkage on mild population shrinking areas is greater than that on severe population shrinking areas. 3) In population shrinking areas, population shrinkage reduces carbon emission efficiency mainly through the decline in green technological innovation level and the improvement in industrial development level. Among them, the impact pathways in areas with mild population shrinkage are the same as those in population shrinking areas, while areas with severe population shrinkage reduce carbon emission efficiency by the improvement in industrial development level and the proportion of coal consumption.