Exploring potential establishment of marine rafting species after transoceanic long-distance dispersal

Aim On March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that resulted in the largest known rafting event in recorded history. By spring 2012, marine debris began washing ashore along the Pacific Coast of the U.S. and Canada with a wide-range of Asian coastal species attached. We used this unique dataset, where the source region, date of dislodgment, and landing location are known, to assess the potential for species invasions by transoceanic rafting on marine debris. Location Northeast Pacific from 20 to 60°N Time period Current Major taxa studied Forty-eight invertebrate and algal species recorded on Japanese tsunami marine debris. Methods We developed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution models for 48 species recorded on Japanese tsunami marine debris to predict establishment potential along the Pacific Coast from 20-60°N. Models were compared within the context of historical marine introductions from Japan to this region to validate the emergence...