Forecasting the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on breeding habitat for a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, the olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

To halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks on future habitat for olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, in Canada's western boreal forest. To predict the occurrence of olive-sided flycatcher we developed a suite of habitat suitability models using point count surveys (1997–2011) spatially- and temporally-matched with forest inventory data. Flycatcher occurrence was positively associated with small (~10 ha) 10–20-year-old clearcuts, and with 10–100% tree mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, but we found no association with roads or distance to water. We used the parameter estimates from the best-fit habitat suitability models to inform spatially...