Simulations for Future Wind Risk of Buildings with Climate Adaptation Measures in ASCE 7, in Measurement and Evaluation of Consequences of Considering Climate Change Effects in Building Standards

The following simulation methodology evaluates the future probability of failure and the potential for disruptive damage for modern buildings across 10 cities in the United States. We first use nonstationary probability distributions to capture projected maximum annual wind speeds from 2030 to 2080, under a 3˚C Global Warming Level, reached by 2080. We then evaluate the resulting annual and lifetime probabilities of failure using these nonstationary probability models, consider current life-safety design requirements in ASCE 7 and then if design wind speeds were amplified by change factors ranging from 1.0 to 1.2. Finally, the simulation method evaluates the impacts of change factors on component design for a case-study wood light-frame building (i.e., for shear walls, hurricane straps, and roof sheathing), costs, and on component failure probabilities, which we consider a proxy for future disruption.

The scripts and data in this repository are a companion to the following manuscript (in review):
Blowes, K., Liel. A.B., Ahram, O., Li. S.H., Galasso, C. 2026. Future Wind Risk of Buildings with Climate Adaptation Measures in ASCE 7. In Review.