Generational Divergence, Structural Cleavages, and Contingent Optimism in South Korean Unification Attitudes

This study examines how generational positioning, structural cleavages, and political events interact to shape Korean attitudes toward unification. This study integrates insights from political sociology, political psychology, and comparative politics to assess domain-specific expectations regarding unification’s potential to reduce economic inequality, mitigate regional disparity, and ease political polarization. Using nationally representative Unification Perception Survey data (2013–2024), regression models reveal consistent generational divergence: older cohorts hold higher, more integrated expectations, whereas younger cohorts express lower and fragmented optimism. Temporal analysis shows a short-lived peak in 2019, following intensive 2018 inter-Korean diplomacy, with counterfactual simulation confirming a statistically and substantively significant event effect. However, optimism quickly regressed absent tangible progress. Findings suggest that sustaining support requires aligning symbolic momentum with credible, domain-specific policy outcomes, especially for younger cohorts, while addressing structural divisions that otherwise erode receptivity to unification discourse.