Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Türkiye’s 2023 earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival

How do disasters from natural hazards affect an incumbent’s re-election? This study contributes new evidence to the empirically mixed literature on leader’s political survival after disasters. Relying on a quantitative analysis, this article examines two major earthquakes that occurred in Türkiye in February 2023 and their impact on the presidential election held three months later. The extant literature suggests that disasters from natural hazards may either increase or decrease public support for the incumbent in the damaged areas. Furthermore, the incumbent is likely to maintain or increase voters’ support in disaster affected areas where pre-existing attitudes are favourable. This study’s findings reveal that the February 2023 earthquakes – and specifically aspects of the disaster response – brought electoral rewards to Türkiye’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, including in his pre-existing electoral strongholds. The results are robust and underscore the relevance of studying political effects of disasters in various types of political regimes.