Predicting ABM Results with Covering Arrays and Random Forests

Our goal is to explore the feasibility and usefulness of using a combination of covering arrays and machine learning models for predicting results of an agent- based simulation model within the vast parameter value combination space. The challenge is to select parameter values that are representative of the overall behavior of the model, so that we can train the machine learning model to be able to correctly predict behavior on previously untested areas of the parameter space. We have chosen Wilensky's Heat Bugs model in NetLogo for our study. It is a simple model, amenable to quick data generation, with a limited number of outputs to predict, and with emergent behavior. This model therefore allows exploration of this new approach.