中国粮食基地的农业生产转型、农民类型及化肥投入变化

Fertilizer inputs in China have surpassed the turning point of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC); however, the understanding of its underlying causes remains limited. This paper aims to explore the mechanisms influencing fertilizer input changes from the perspective of agricultural production transition and develop a corresponding theoretical analytical framework. The results demonstrate that despite the heterogeneity in the amounts, structures, and methods of fertilizer application among farmer households—attributable to interactions of age, nonfarm livelihoods, farm size, land tenancy behaviors, and household economic conditions—there exists a clear ‘high-level’ interval consensus regarding fertilizer usage in the study area. The paper proposes three key paths through which agricultural production transition affects fertilization practices in China’s grain bases, namely, the path of ageing agricultural operating entities driven by capital-livelihood laws, the path of productionism determined by political-economic mechanisms, and the path of farm size structure evolution guided by policy, where the latter serving as a crucial driver of fertilizer inputs across the turning point of the EKC. Furthermore, the ‘metabolic cycle effect’ based on the combination of crop cultivation and livestock fattening in China’s smallholder farming has been overshadowed as the economy has evolved. Finally, this paper discusses the future potential for fertilizer reduction within the context of China’s unique agricultural production transition.