Optimal Cabinet duration and economic performance

This database is a Panel Dataset (also known as longitudinal data) structured to track political transitions and their macroeconomic consequences across multiple jurisdictions over time. It is designed specifically to capture the non-linear relationship between ministerial stability and economic output.
Below is the technical description of the database and how its variables are structured to test your three-phase hypothesis.
1. Data Structure and Unit of Observation
The database is organized by Country-Year (or Country-Month) observations. This allows for the tracking of:
* Within-unit changes: How a single country's growth changes as a cabinet ages.
* Between-unit changes: How different countries' growth rates compare during reshuffle years versus stable years.
2. Variable Classification
The database consists of three distinct tiers of variables designed to isolate the "Threshold" effect:
A. The Dependent Variable (Outcome)
* Economic Growth per Capita: Measured as the annual percentage change in real GDP per capita. This serves as the benchmark for "Ministerial Performance."
B. Core Explanatory Variables (The Political "Clock")
These variables are the heart of the "three-phase" analysis:
* Cabinet Reshuffle Event: A binary (0/1) or count variable. It marks the "reset" of the clock and allows for the measurement of the Learning Phase (the immediate friction/cost of changing personnel).
* Cabinet Duration (Tenure): A continuous variable measuring the time elapsed since the last reshuffle or government formation. This captures the Performance Phase (accumulation of ministerial experience).
* Duration Squared (Duration^2): A quadratic term used to identify the Moral Hazard Phase. This variable allows the statistical model to curve downward, showing where the costs of long-term tenure (complacency/corruption) begin to exceed the benefits of experience.
C. Control Variables (Contextual Filters)
To ensure that economic growth is actually being driven by cabinet dynamics and not outside forces, the database includes:
* Macroeconomic Controls: Inflation rates, trade openness, and external debt.
* Institutional Controls: Regime type (democracy vs. autocracy) and legislative margins.
3. The Three-Phase Theoretical Mapping
The database is structured to facilitate the following mathematical relationship:
* Learning Phase: Characterized by the immediate aftermath of a Reshuffle Event. The data often shows a "dip" in performance here as new ministers navigate their portfolios.
* Performance Phase: Represented by the linear Duration variable. As the value increases, the database should show a positive correlation with GDP growth, reflecting the "Experience Effect."
* Moral Hazard Phase: Represented by the Duration Squared term. After a specific Threshold, the negative coefficient of this variable begins to pull the growth rate down, signifying the point where ministerial "entrenchment" becomes an economic liability.