雅鲁藏布江上游全新世径流与洪水记录

雅鲁藏布江（布拉马普特拉河的上游）是南亚最重要的跨境河流之一，为超过6亿人提供至关重要的淡水资源，与此同时洪水威胁频发。现代径流观测时序较短，理解径流的长期变化并确定其潜在机制非常重要。为此我们利用雅鲁藏布江上游一个与河流相连的湖泊，通过地球化学元素、粒度、矿物组分分析，提供了全新世连续的径流记录，并在此基础上利用指标变率法提取了潜在的历史洪水事件。结果表明，与同期印度季风减弱相反，全新世径流持续增加，认为后期径流增加主要受到西风水汽和冰川融水补给。古洪水结果显示在全新世早期和晚期频率相对较高，可能与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的变化有关。我们的研究结果表明，随着未来气候的持续变暖，可能会进一步削弱西风并加速冰川融化，从而威胁雅鲁藏布江径流的长期可持续性。此外，气候变暖导致ENSO加剧将增加洪水风险。

The Yarlung Zangbo River (upper reaches of the Brahmaputra River) is one of the most important transboundary rivers in South Asia, providing vital freshwater resources for over 600 million people while facing frequent flood threats. Given the short duration of modern runoff observation records, it is critical to understand the long-term changes in runoff and identify their underlying mechanisms. To address this, we utilized a lake connected to the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, conducted analyses of geochemical elements, grain size and mineral composition, and established a continuous Holocene runoff record. Based on this record, we extracted potential historical flood events using the index variability method. The results show that, in contrast to the weakening Indian monsoon during the same period, runoff in the Holocene continued to increase, and we attribute the late-stage increase in runoff mainly to westerly water vapor and glacial meltwater recharge. Paleoflood results indicate that flood frequencies were relatively high during the early and late Holocene, which may be related to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our research findings suggest that with continued future climate warming, the westerlies may be further weakened and glacial melt accelerated, thereby threatening the long-term sustainability of runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River. In addition, the intensification of ENSO caused by climate warming will increase flood risks.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集提供了雅鲁藏布江上游全新世（12000年以来）连续的径流记录和洪水事件分析，通过地球化学元素、粒度、矿物组分等方法揭示了径流长期变化及洪水频率与ENSO的关联。数据以表格xlsx格式存储，开放获取，大小为302.78 KB。