Data for: Tailored Forecasts Can Predict Extreme Climate Informing Proactive Interventions in East Africa

This perspective discusses new advances in the predictability of east
African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning
systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural
decision-making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, in
2022, 23 million east Africans faced starvation, requiring >$2
billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution studies showing that
these droughts resulted from an interaction of climate change and La Niña.
Then we describe, for the first time, how attribution-based insights can
be combined with the latest dynamic models to predict droughts at
eight-month lead-times. We then discuss behavioral and social barriers to
forecast use and review literature examining how EWS might (or might not)
enhance agro-pastoral advisories and humanitarian interventions. Finally,
in reference to the new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) “Early
Warning for All” plan, we conclude with a set of recommendations
supporting actionable and authoritative climate services. Trust, urgency,
and accuracy can help overcome barriers created by limited funding,
uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia. Understanding how climate change is
producing predictable climate extremes now, investing in African-led EWS,
and building better links between EWS and agricultural development efforts
can support long-term adaptation, reducing chronic needs for billions of
dollars in reactive assistance.