Alternative method to predict volatile electricity generation from renewable and low-carbon sources in Brazilian matrix

The National Electric System Operator (ONS) is responsible for maintaining and updating operation historical data and contains time series of the amount of electrical energy generated in gigawatt-hours (GWh) from all plants that make up the National Interconnected System (SIN). The database was collected on the ONS website in monthly values from the following generating sources: biomass, coal, fuel oils, hydropower, industrial waste, natural gas, nuclear, solar and wind. The analyzed period was from January 1999 to December 2022, accounting 288 observations, and the out-of-sample data from January to March 2023 were used for modeling accuracy analysis purposes.