Climate model output from a study of tropical cyclones over the Shanghai region under climate change based on a convection-permitting modelling

Changes in tropical cyclones due to greenhouse-gas forcing in the Shanghai
area have been studied in a double-nesting regional model experiment using
the Met Office convection-permitting model HadREM3-RA1T at 4km resolution
and the regional model HadREM3-GA7.05 at 12km for the intermediate nest.
Boundary conditions for the experiment have been constructed from
HadGEM2-ES, a General Circulation Model (GCM) from the 5th Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), directly using high-frequency data for
the atmosphere (6-hourly) and the ocean (daily), for the historical period
(1981-2000) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5
(2080-2099). These choices identify one of the warmest climate scenarios
available from CMIP5. Given the direct use of GCM data for the baseline,
large scale conditions relevant for tropical cyclones have been analyzed,
demonstrating a realistic representation of environmental conditions off
the coast of eastern China. GCM large scale changes show a reduction in
wind shear in addition to the expected strong increase in sea surface
temperature. Tropical cyclones from the 4km historical simulation have a
negative bias in intensity, not exceeding Category 4, and a wet bias in
the rainfall associated with these cyclones. However, there is a clear
improvement in cyclone intensity and rainfall at 4km in comparison with
the 12km simulation. Climate change responses in the 4km simulation
include an extension of the tropical cyclone season, and strong increases
in frequency of the most intense cyclones (approximately by a factor of
10) and associated rainfall. These are consistent with the results from
the 12km simulation. Basic Data Description: This dataset included the
HadREM3-GA7.05 and HadREM3-RA1T model output used in the analysis of this
paper and the HadGEM2-ES meteorological variables for the historical
run  not included in the CMIP5 archive at the Earth System Grid
Federation (ESGF) archive.