Projecting Populations for Major Pacific Island Countries With and Without COVID-19: Pro-active Insights for Population Policy Datset_2.xlsx

The paper projects aggregate populations of six Pacific Island countries both in the pre and post-COVID19 scenarios using Cohort Component Method for the period 2020-2060. It uses baseline indicators resembling China and Italy’s experiences and finds that Pacific countries could experience about 5% fatality which could reach up to 20%. It also finds that most countries would experience higher fatalities in the older age groups, consistent with what is being witnessed in other countries around the world. The analysis also shows that while the risk escalates for people over 50 years onward in all the countries, in Fiji, those in the age range of 70 years or more are at higher risk. The finding also indicates that for all countries, the fatality rate for 80 years and over is about 50%. The population projections show that Fiji will be most impacted, while others will experience around 2% initial population decline. The convergence to baseline is found to be slow (except for Tonga) in most Pacific countries. Consequently, the paper suggests a cautious approach in dealing with the crisis.