Combining geostatistical and biotic interactions modelling to predict amphibian refuges under crayfish invasion across dendritic stream networks

Aim: Biological invasions are pervasive in freshwater ecosystems, often causing native species to contract into areas that remain largely free from invasive species impacts. Predicting the location of such ecological refuges is challenging, because they are shaped by the habitat requirements of native and invasive species, their biotic interactions, and the spatial and temporal invasion patterns. Here we investigated the spatial distribution and environmental drivers of refuges from invasion in river systems, by considering biotic interactions in geostatistical models accounting for stream network topology. We focused on Mediterranean amphibians negatively impacted by the invasive crayfishes Procambarus clarkii and Pacifastacus leniusculus. Location: River Sabor, NE Portugal Methods: We surveyed amphibians at 168 200-m stream stretches in 2015. Geostatistical models were used to relate the probabilities of occurrence of each species to environmental and biotic variables, while con...