Will current protected areas harbor refugia for threatened Arctic vegetation types until 2050? A first assessment

Arctic vegetation is crucial for fauna and the livelihoods of Northern peoples and is tightly linked to climate, permafrost soils, and water. Yet, a comprehensive understanding of climate change effects on Arctic vegetation is lacking. Protected areas cannot halt climate change but could reduce future pressure from additional drivers, like land use change and local industrial pollution. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the contribution of protected areas in safeguarding threatened Arctic vegetation types. We compare the present baseline with 2050 predictions of circumpolar Arctic vegetation type distributions and demonstrate an overrepresentation of dominant vegetation types and an underrepresentation of declining vegetation types within protected areas. Our study predicts five of eight assessed tundra vegetation types to be threatened by 2050, following International Union for Conservation of Nature criteria. Further, we mapped potential climate change refugia, areas with the highest potential for safeguarding threatened vegetation types. This study provides an essential first step assessing vegetation type vulnerability based on predictions covering 42 percent of Arctic landscapes. The co-development of new protective measures by policymakers and Indigenous peoples at a pan-Arctic scale requires more robust and spatially complete vegetation predictions, as increasing pressures from resource exploration and infrastructure development threaten the sustainable development of the rapidly thawing and greening Arctic.