Fine-grain, large-domain climate models based on climate station and comprehensive topographic information improve microrefugia detection

Large-domain species distribution models (SDMs) fail to identify microrefugia, as they are based on climate estimates that are either too coarse or that ignore relevant topographic climate-forcing factors. Climate station data are considered inadequate to produce such estimates, a viewpoint we challenge here. Using climate stations and topographic data, we developed three sets of large-domain (450,000 km²), fine-grain (50 m) temperature grids accounting for different levels of topographic complexity. Using these fine-grain grids and the Worldclim data, we fitted SDMs for 78 alpine species over Sweden, and assessed over- versus underestimations of local extinction and area of microrefugia by comparing modelled distributions at species' rear edges. Accounting for well-known topographic climate-forcing factors improved our ability to model fine-scale climate, despite using only climate station data. This approach captured the effect of cool air pooling, distance to sea, and relative humid...