Replication Data for: The Anti-Incumbent Effects of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs.

Scholars concur that conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have a strong pro- incumbent effect among beneficiaries. Although no study has properly focused on the overall effect of cash transfers on incumbents’ national vote shares, most schol- ars have deduced that this effect is positive; i.e., that cash transfers lead to the expansion of incumbents’ electoral bases. This article analyzes survey data from nearly all Latin American countries and confirms that beneficiaries of CCT pro- grams are more likely to support incumbents. However, it also shows that CCT programs may induce many voters who were previously incumbent supporters to vote for the opposition. As a consequence, the overall impact of cash transfers on incumbents’ vote shares is indeterminate; it depends on the balance between both patterns of behavioral changes among voters. This study is the first to report evi- dence that cash transfer programs may have significant anti-incumbent effects.