"A universal long-run elasticity of economic output to population, and its implications for the global economy of 2100

This dataset contains the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior distributions (NetCDF format) and projection baseline files from a multi-stage Bayesian hierarchical analysis investigating the long-run elasticity between population and aggregate economic output. The repository includes the complete posterior samples and baseline data across the following modeling stages: hierarchical_10yr_posterior.nc: The primary posterior distribution from the 10-year non-overlapping block model (2 chains × 1,500 draws; 3,000 total). hierarchical_5yr_posterior.nc: The stress-test posterior distribution using 5-year blocks. hierarchical_10yr_posterior_weak.nc: The prior-sensitivity audit posterior distribution. gdp_rankings_2100_naive.csv: The naïve projection baseline. These files provide the probabilistic basis for projecting global economic trajectories to 2100 under United Nations demographic scenarios. They are designed to be used in conjunction with the projection engine and analysis scripts hosted on the project's GitHub repository (https://github.com/denovo2021/EPOCH) to ensure full computational reproducibility.