Exposure to Border Violence Erodes Military Trust: Mixed-Methods Evidence from Ghana

Researchers have long linked weak state presence in border regions to higher conflict risk but often overlook how exposure to border insecurity in these peripheries shapes civilian trust in security institutions. We examine northern Ghana, where rising crime and social conflict due to the insurgency in Burkina Faso and a porous border have heightened local insecurity. Using a mixed-methods approach – combining coarsened exact matching of geolocated civilian perception data with ethnographic fieldwork – we find that proximity to the border significantly lowers trust in the military while increasing trust in traditional authorities. A battery of robustness tests confirms these effects are geographically and war-onset specific. Qualitative interviews reveal how civilians navigate security amid perceived military shortcomings. Our study highlights a key center-periphery divide in state legitimacy, offering critical insights for conflict research and strategies to preempt regional political instability.