Global ecological restoration framework trading off carbon sequestration and water consumption

Ecological restoration can effectively reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations by enhancing terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, little attention has been paid to the increase in carbon sequestration from ecological restoration of actual terrestrial ecosystems over time and its impact on water consumption, as well as to the influence of future ecological restoration on the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon sequestration and water consumption trade-offs. In this study, we employed a calibrated dynamic vegetation model to simulate recoverable carbon sequestration and the corresponding water consumption resulting from ecological restoration in global terrestrial ecosystems over a time series. Our global assessment shows that global terrestrial ecological restoration starting in 2025 could sequester an additional 1.6–2.5 PgC yr−1 by 2100 under SSP119–SSP585 scenarios, with corresponding water consumption of 4566–4812 km3 yr−1. At the national scale, ecological restoration contributes to varying degrees toward achieving the Nationally Determined Contributions and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C emission reduction targets. Additionally, the proposed restoration framework incorporates both restoration areas and sequences, and national-scale restoration pathways to achieve emission reduction targets with minimal water consumption under different climate scenarios, as demonstrated in the case of Brazil. These findings highlight the importance of considering the trade-offs between carbon sequestration and water consumption when implementing ecological restoration, especially in water-scarce countries, where water-intensive restoration projects may exacerbate water resource shortages.