Data from: Different strokes for different croaks: Using an African reed frog species complex as a model to understand idiosyncratic population requirements for conservation management

Biodiversity is under increasing pressure from environmental change,
although the scope and severity of these impacts remain incompletely
understood. For many species, a lack of information about
population‐specific responses to future environmental change hinders the
development of effective conservation strategies. Here, we use an East
African reed frog species complex as a model to explore spatial variation
in vulnerability to future environmental changes. Our sampling across two
threatened biodiversity hotspots spans the entire geographic range of H.
mitchelli and H. rubrovermiculatus in Kenya, Tanzania, and Malawi. Using
genome‐wide (ddRAD‐seq) data, we evaluate levels of neutral genetic
diversity and local adaptations across sampling localities. We then
integrate spatial approaches (genomic offset, modeled dispersal barriers,
and Species Distribution Models) to predict how populations may respond
differently to future environmental changes, such as climate warming and
predicted land use changes. Based on our analyses, we characterize
population structure and identify region‐specific management needs that
reflect genetic variation among populations and the uneven impacts of
predicted change across the landscape. Peripheral populations are most
vulnerable to future environmental changes due to (i) low levels of
neutral genetic diversity (Malawi and Pare mountains in Tanzania), (ii)
putative signals of local adaptation to wetter conditions with predicted
disruptions to genotype–environment associations (i.e., high genomic
offset, Kenya and Northern Tanzania), and (iii) the projected contraction
of suitable habitat, which is a pervasive threat to the species complex in
general. Populations in Northern, Central, and Southern Tanzania show the
lowest vulnerability to environmental change and may serve as important
reservoirs of genetic diversity for potential future genetic rescue
initiatives. Our study highlights how populations across different parts
of species ranges may be unevenly affected by future global changes and
provides a framework to predict which conservation actions may help
mitigate these effects.