Replication package for "When do intelligent forecasts pay in metal procurement? An explainable, decision-focused evaluation for six base metals, 2012–2026"

Code and data to reproduce all tables and figures of the article. The package contains raw public data (IMF primary commodity prices and macro-financial series retrieved from FRED, the New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index; vintage of 23 October 2026), the assembled monthly panel (1998M01–2026M07), pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts of six LME base metals (copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, lead, tin) at horizons of 1, 3 and 6 months from elastic net, random forest, XGBoost, forecast combination and econometric benchmarks, TreeSHAP attributions, procurement-timing decision outcomes, and the Python scripts that generate them. See README.md for instructions.