Gas Consumption Patterns Analysis for Meter Calibration Optimization (Case study of PT. XYZ)

In natural gas distribution, one of the main challenges faced is Unaccounted for Gas (UAG). UAG refers to gases that were lost or unmetered during the distribution process. This phenomenon could have been caused by various factors, one of which was the inaccuracy of measurements on the meter. The total loss throughout 2024 reached IDR 20,775,375,682. The study discussed one of the factors that caused the high value of Unaccounted for Gas (UAG) by identifying the gas usage patterns. PT XYZ was chosen from a total of 5689 customers because it had the largest gas consumption during the period 2020 - 2024. The collected data was validated first to eliminate outliers, then the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting technique (data stationarity) was carried out. The best ARIMA model, the AR(1) model, had a result of gas consumption that tended to increase slowly. The initial prediction in the 52nd period (January 2025) was around 866.42 m3/hour and continued to rose to 882.29 m3/hour in the 63rd period (December 2025). The results showed that the replacement of the meter was recommended to continue use the same size meter that had a small percentage of error tolerance in the range of 866.42 m3/h to 882.29 m3/h. Before this analysis, the calibration meter replacement mechanism was carried out without look at the prediction of the customer's gas consumption forecast results. Thus, with this analysis, company now can choose a meter in accordance with the customer's gas consumption characteristics.