Various outcomes concerning the correctness of an early warning metric, based on whether an alarms is given (<i>A</i>) or not (), and whether within the time horizon the macro-state transitions (<i>O</i>) or not ().

Precision in time is assessed by the predicted time lag τalarm, the actual time of transitioning τ0 and a bandwidth ϵ. Outcomes are as in the text: various types of false alarms (FA), missed alarms (MA), hits (H) and correct rejections (CR).