Predicted frequency of low-flow pulse events for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under historic hydrologic conditions.

Our objective was to model frequency of low-pulse events on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Modeling streamflows is an important tool for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no gaged records. We focused our study in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a region that is not only critical for water resources but also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drier climate. We used a random forest modeling approach to model the relation between frequency of low-pulse events on gaged streams (115 gages) and environmental variables. We then projected frequency of low-pulse events to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream cell in the basin. This data layer shows modeled values for the frequency of low-pulse events.