Monitoring and Modeling Changes in Albedo and Drivers in Central Asia Over the Past 35 years

Albedo is a crucial factor influencing regional radiative forcing and energy balance, exhibiting significant variability across ecological zones, from deserts to alpine areas. However, our understanding of surface albedo changes in Central Asia's arid regions is limited. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of surface albedo from 1990 to 2025 using multi-sensor satellite datasets (MERRA-2, MODIS, VIIRS) and reanalysis products. It explores the relationships with climatic, environmental, anthropogenic, and biophysical drivers. Findings reveal a strong positive correlation between NDVI and surface albedo in vegetated areas, while pollution indices show a negative association. Arid lowlands display lower albedo (0.35-0.47), contrasting with higher values in humid highlands (0.6-0.73). Despite no significant long-term trends since 1990, a decline is anticipated post-2025 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. This study highlights albedo's sensitivity to both natural and human influences, providing valuable insights for climate resilience strategies.