Winter inputs buffer streamflow sensitivity to snowpack losses in the Salt River Watershed in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Recent streamflow declines in the Upper Colorado River Basin raise concerns about the sensitivity of water supply for 40 million people to rising temperatures. Yet, other studies in western US river basins present a paradox: streamflow has not consistently declined with warming and snow loss. A potential explanation for this lack of consistency is warming-induced production of winter runoff when potential evaporative losses are low. This mechanism is more likely in basins at lower elevations or latitudes with relatively warm winter temperatures and intermittent snowpacks. We test whether this accounts for streamflow patterns in nine gaged basins of the Salt River and its tributaries, which is a sub-basin in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). We develop a basin-scale model that separates snow and rainfall inputs and simulates snow accumulation and melt using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. Despite significant warming from 1968–2011 and snow loss in many of the basi...