Trade Damage Estimation for the 2019 Market Facilitation Program and Food Purchase and Distribution Program

Executive Summary: This paper outlines the methodology USDA employed to estimate the level of gross trade damage caused by retaliatory tariffs to U.S. agricultural exports by commodity. Those estimates were used to determine the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payment rates and the value of commodities to be targeted for purchase under the 2019 Food Purchase and Distribution Program (FPDP). The paper also outlines the formulas employed to calculate MFP county rates for non-specialty crops, as well as national MFP rates for specialty crops, hogs, and milk. USDA announced details on those programs on July 25, 2019. For more details about the trade mitigation programs, visit https://www.farmers.gov/manage/mfp. Rulemaking and related documents, including the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), for trade mitigation programs can be found at https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=CCC-2019-0003.