AFFIRMATIVE PROCUREMENT AND INCLUSIVE DEVELOPMENT: INSTITUTIONAL PATHWAYS AND ECONOMIC PARTICIPATION IN NIGERIA

Public procurement is increasingly deployed as a demand-side policy instrument for promoting inclusive economic development, yet the effectiveness of affirmative procurement remains uneven in contexts characterised by institutional and capability constraints. This study investigates how affirmative procurement translates into inclusive development outcomes in Nigeria by examining institutional and supplier capability pathways linking policy intensity to SME participation and inclusive growth. Primary data were collected through a structured organisational survey of procurement stakeholders (N = 150). A Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) approach was applied using SmartPLS 4 to estimate a mediated–moderated framework, with robustness confirmed through bootstrapping (5,000 resamples) and collinearity diagnostics. Results show that affirmative procurement policy intensity significantly improves institutional quality (H1: β = 0.482, t = 8.214, p < 0.001) and exerts a modest direct effect on SME participation (H2: β = 0.158, t = 2.103, p = 0.036). Institutional quality strongly enhances participation (H3: β = 0.421, p < 0.001), while supplier development support further strengthens participation outcomes (H4: β = 0.296, p < 0.001). SME participation substantially drives inclusive growth outcomes (H5: β = 0.611, p < 0.001). Mediation results confirm institutional and participation transmission mechanisms (H6: β = 0.203; H7: β = 0.257, p < 0.001), and supplier development support positively moderates the policy–participation relationship (H8: β = 0.173, p = 0.001). The study contributes to knowledge by advancing a mechanism-based explanation of procurement-led inclusion that integrates institutional theory with developmental governance perspectives. Policy recommendations emphasise strengthening procurement transparency and enforcement, institutionalising supplier development programmes, and improving payment reliability to enhance SME engagement. Future research should employ longitudinal and comparative designs using administrative procurement data to further examine causal dynamics and cross-country institutional variations in inclusive procurement outcomes.