Calibration of probability predictions from machine-learning and statistical models

This data set describes the occurrence (yes/no) of a bird, the Southern Whiteface (Aphelocephala leucopsis) in Australia. A suite of environmental variables is provided, which are used in the paper to illustrate a statistical problem. The data are meant to allow reproduction of the analysis in this paper. They are not intended for actual ecological analysis. The data come as .Rdata-file, i.e. as an R-dataset (described technically here: https://www.loc.gov/preservation/digital/formats/fdd/fdd000470.shtml).

Here is the paper's abstract:

Aim: Predictions from statistical models may be uncalibrated, meaning that the predicted values do not have the nominal coverage probability. This is easiest seen with probability predictions in machine-learning classification, including the common species occurrence probabilities. Here, a predicted probability of, say, 0.7 should indicate that out of 100 cases with these environmental conditions, and hence the same predicted probability, the specie...