Developing a Framework to Evaluate the Impact of Decarbonization on Energy Geopolitics and Investment in the Persian Gulf and China

Figure 1a. Energy Mix of Electricity Production and Fuel Export by GCC Countries, 2012-2022. Left Y-axis: Percentage share of each energy source in the electricity mixRight Y-axis: Net oil exports in Tb/d; net gas exports in Bcf/y Figure 1b. Energy Mix of Electricity Production and Fuel Export by Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022. Figure 1c. Energy Mix of Electricity Production and Fuel Export by Kuwait, 2012-2022. Figure 1d. Energy Mix of Electricity Production and Fuel Export by the UAE, 2012-2022. Figure 1e. Energy Mix of Electricity Production and Fuel Export by Qatar, 2012-2022. Figure 2a. Share of Asia (%) in Mineral Fuel Export by GCC Countries, 2012-2022. Figure 2b. Share of China (%) in Mineral Fuel Export by GCC Countries, 2012-2022. Figure 3. Investments from China into Energy Projects by Region, 2018-2022, in US$ billion. Figure 4. Investments from China into Gulf Countries, 2018-2022, in US$ billion. X-axis: Source Type refers to the category of energy investment. The label “Not allocatable” indicates investments that could not be clearly identified as either fossil or renewable energy. Sector Type refers to investments within the energy and utilities sectors. Figure 5. Distribution of Investments of Gulf Countries by Region and Sector. Note. Kuwait equals zero giving missing data on investment amount. Figure 6. Decarbonization and Security-enhancing Substitution Hypothesis Figure 7. Decarbonization and Substitution-led Export Enablement Hypothesis