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The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules

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NBER2017-11-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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Recent research has found that the Taylor-rule fundamentals have power to forecast changes in U.S. dollar exchange rates out of sample. Our work casts some doubt on that claim. However, we find strong evidence of a related in-sample anomaly. When we include U.S. inflation in the well-known uncovered

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2017-11-01
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