Estimated Survival of Subadult and Adult Atlantic Sturgeon in Four River Basins in the Southeastern United States

Prompted by concerns about the status of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus, in 2012 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration listed one distinct population segment (DPS) as threatened (Gulf of Maine) and listed the remaining four DPSs as endangered (New York Bight, Chesapeake Bay, Carolina, and South Atlantic). To provide information for recovery planning, we estimated the survival of subadult and adult Atlantic Sturgeon in two river basins within the Carolina DPS (Roanoke and Cape Fear rivers, North Carolina) and two basins within the South Atlantic DPS (Ashepoo–Combahee–Edisto rivers [ACE], South Carolina; Altamaha River, Georgia). Estimated detection probability varied strongly by season but was similar among river basins, likely reflecting a winter migration into marine waters with minimal receiver coverage. Apparent monthly survival was very high and precisely estimated for the Roanoke River (0.985; 95% credible interval [CI] = 0.970–0.995), Cape Fear River (0.979; 95% CI = 0.971–0.986), ACE (0.989; 95% CI = 0.979–0.993), and Altamaha River (0.985; 95% CI = 0.973–0.994) basins. A pooled estimate for 87 adults from all four basins was 0.988 (95% CI = 0.982–0.992). The monthly rates implied annual apparent survival rates of 0.839 (Roanoke River basin), 0.778 (Cape Fear River basin), 0.871 (ACE basin), and 0.842 (Altamaha River basin); the pooled estimate for adults was 0.860. Our estimated survival rates were similar to other recent estimates for Atlantic Sturgeon but lower than recent estimates for several populations of Gulf Sturgeon A. oxyrinchus desotoi. Recovery of Atlantic Sturgeon in these southeastern rivers will occur more quickly if survival can be increased to a level that is consistent with published estimates of true natural mortality (0.03–0.07; annual survival ≥ 0.93). Received March 18, 2015; accepted August 26, 2015