Global sea level change indicators from 1950 to 2050 derived from reanalysis and high resolution CMIP6 climate projections

This dataset provides statistical indicators of tides, storm surges and sea level that can be used to characterize global sea level in present-day conditions and also to assess changes under climate change. The indicators calculated include extreme-value indicators (e.g. return periods including confidence bounds for total water levels and surge levels), probability indicators (e.g. percentile for total water levels and surge levels). They provide a basis for studies aiming to evaluate sea level variability, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, and accessibility of ports at a global scale. The extreme value statistics for different return periods can be used to assess the frequency of an event and form the basis of risk assessments. The global coverage allows for world-wide assessments that are particularly useful for the data scarce regions where detailed modelling studies are currently lacking.
The indicators are computed from time series data available in a related dataset in the Climate Data Store named Global sea level change time series from 1950 to 2050 derived from reanalysis and high resolution CMIP6 climate projections (see Related data), where further details of the modelling are provided. The indicators are produced for three different 30-year periods corresponding to historical, present, and future climate conditions (1951-1980, 1985-2014, and 2021-2050). The future period is based on global climate projections using the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5. The dataset is based on climate forcing from ERA5 global reanalysis and 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the high resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate projection dataset from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) multi-model ensemble. An estimate of the uncertainties associated with the climate forcing has been obtained through the use of a multi-model ensemble. Each of the indicators provides ensemble statistics computed across the 4 members of the HighResMIP ensemble (e.g. median, mean, standard deviation, range). Absolute and relative changes for the future period (2015-2050) relative to the present-day (1985-2014) are provided to assess climate change impacts on water levels.
This dataset was produced on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

本数据集提供了潮汐、风暴潮和海平面统计指标，可用于表征当前全球海平面状况，并评估气候变化下的变化情况。其中计算的指标包括极值指标（例如，包括置信区间的总水位和潮位重现期）和概率指标（例如，总水位和潮位的分位数）。这些指标为旨在评估全球尺度海水位变化、沿海洪水、沿海侵蚀和港口可达性的研究提供了基础。不同重现期的极值统计可以用来评估事件的频率，并形成风险评估的基础。全球覆盖范围使得能够进行全球范围内的评估，这对于目前缺乏详细建模研究的资料稀缺地区尤其有用。指标是从气候数据存储中名为“自1950年至2050年全球海平面变化时间序列”的相关数据集中计算得出的，该数据集来源于再分析和高分辨率CMIP6气候预测（见相关数据），其中提供了建模的进一步细节。对于历史、当前和未来气候条件（1951-1980、1985-2014和2021-2050）的三个不同的30年时段，产生了指标。未来时期基于使用高排放情景SSP5-8.5的全球气候预测。数据集基于ERA5全球再分析和来自高分辨率耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）全球气候预测数据集中的4个全球气候模型（GCM）的高分辨率耦合模型比较项目（HighResMIP）多模型集合的气候强迫。通过使用多模型集合获得了与气候强迫相关的不确定性的估计。每个指标提供了跨越HighResMIP集合的4个成员的集合统计（例如，中位数、均值、标准差、范围）。提供了相对于现时的绝对和相对变化（2015-2050相对于1985-2014），以评估气候变化对水位的影响。本数据集由哥白尼气候变化服务代表生成。