Number of economically inactive people due to long-term sickness in the UK 2000-2024

There was a peak of 2.82 million people not working due to long-term sickness in the UK in the first quarter of 2024, with this figure falling slightly in subsequent quarters. This figure has been rising considerably since 2019, when there were just over two million people economically inactive for this reason. Before 2022, the previous peak for people on long-term sick leave was in the late 2021 and early 2022, at just over 2.38 million. At that time, the main reason for economic inactivity among the UK labor force was people who were looking after family members. Since the third quarter of 2021, however, long-term and temporary sickness has been the main reason that people were economically inactive, accounting for 32.2 percent of economic inactivity in the third quarter of 2024. What is driving the increase in long-term sickness?It is unclear if there are any specific reasons for the continued growth of long-term sickness in the UK. As of 2022, some of the most common health conditions cited as the reason for long-term sickness were to do with mental health issues, with 313,00 suffering from mental illness, and a further 282,000 for depression-related illness. It is also likely that the COVID-19 pandemic caused an impact, with around 1.8 million people in April 2022 reporting an experience of Long Covid. In general, while the majority of people on long-term sick leave are over the age of 50, there has been a noticeable increase in those aged under 35 being off on long-term sickness. Between 2019 and 2022, the number of those aged between 16 and 34 on long-term sickness increased by 140,000, compared with just 32,000 for those aged between 35 and 49.Hot UK labor market set to cool in 2024?In 2022, the UK labor market was weighted significantly in favor of workers and people looking for work. Unemployment fell to its lowest levels since the 1970s, while job vacancies reached a peak of more than 1.3 million in May. Wage growth also remained strong during this period, although as this occurred at a time of high inflation, wages fell in real terms for a long period between November 2021 and June 2023. Although the job market has continued to show signs of resilience, redundancies in December were at their highest levels since April 2021, at 116,000. By historic standards, the UK labor market remains quite tight, even if there are signals that a readjustment is occurring heading into 2024.

2024年第一季度，英国因长期疾病而无法工作的人数达到282万的高峰，此后该数字略有下降。自2019年以来，这一数字显著上升，当年仅有略超过200万人因经济不活跃而长期患病。在2022年之前，2021年晚些时候至2022年初的长期病假人数达到238万略多，为之前的最高值。当时，英国劳动力市场不活跃的主要原因是在照顾家庭成员的人。然而，自2021年第三季度以来，长期和暂时性疾病已成为人们经济不活跃的主要原因，在2024年第三季度的经济不活跃中占32.2%。是什么推动了长期疾病率的上升？目前尚不清楚英国长期疾病持续增长的具体原因。截至2022年，最常见的健康问题与心理健康有关，其中31.3万人患有精神疾病，另有28.2万人患有与抑郁症相关的疾病。此外，COVID-19大流行可能产生了影响，约有180万人在2022年4月报告了长期新冠的经历。总体而言，尽管长期病假的大多数人年龄超过50岁，但35岁以下的人长期病假的数量明显增加。在2019年至2022年期间，16至34岁长期病假的人数增加了14万人，而35至49岁年龄段的人数仅增加了3.2万人。2022年，英国劳动力市场对劳动者和求职者明显有利。失业率降至自1970年代以来的最低水平，而5月份的职位空缺达到130万以上的峰值。在这一时期，工资增长也保持强劲，尽管由于通货膨胀率高，工资在2021年11月至2023年6月期间的实际价值长期下降。尽管就业市场继续显示出韧性，但12月份的裁员人数达到自2021年4月以来的最高水平，为11.6万人。按历史标准衡量，英国劳动力市场仍然相当紧张，尽管有迹象表明，2024年可能正在发生调整。