Modelled gridded population estimates for Maï-Ndombe Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo, version 4.3

This data release consists of gridded population estimates for Maï-Ndombe Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It includes gridded population counts with model uncertainty measures and breakdowns in 40 age-sex groups at a spatial resolution of approximately 100m. The team used the Pre-Distribution Registration Survey (PDRS) data from the National Malaria Control Programme (PNLP) collected as part of anti-malarial campaigns in the DRC, settlement footprints, and geospatial covariates to model population counts at the grid cell level in a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework. This accounts for multiple levels of variability within the data and allows to quantify model uncertainty. Although the proposed approach accounts for bias in the input population data, other sources of uncertainty are likely to remain. These population estimates are for 2024, aligning with the year of the PDRS survey data collection in Maï-Ndombe Province and the settlement footprint data.

The data were produced by the WorldPop Research Group at the University of Southampton as part of the GRID3 – Phase 2 Scaling project funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-044979). Project partners included GRID3 Inc., the Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN) within the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University, and WorldPop at the University of Southampton. Ortis Yankey designed and developed the statistical model. Gianluca Boo implemented the model and processed the data with support from Tom Abbott and Heather Chamberlain. Chris Nnanatu, Attila Lazar, and Andy Tatem provided project oversight. The PDRS data from the malaria insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution campaigns were collected, processed, anonymised, and shared by the PNLP and its implementing partners. The settlement extent data was prepared and shared by CIESIN (2024). The data has been clipped to GRID3-CIESIN health area extent (version 6.0) (CIESIN, 2025).